Chart Folder - February 10, 2003:


I have taken this chart and have highlighted the areas that had potential trades. Hindsight won't buy you a hole in a doughnut...good practice when you have a clue.

Remember we had a very volatile morning, and the market was sorta out of sync. We needed the Nas to really try to make this work...my bias this morning, and every Monday morning is bullish. So I try to find an opportunity to make that work. 11:45 MACD was looking like it wanted to crossover. It would have been a powertrade...risky! And it was counter trend...so two strikes.

But how about the breakout of the first hours high or the open pivotal number. Write this down...when they breakout of the first hours high...that's telling us they are going to try and hold this up the rest of the day, or by the end of the day. Do the math on the breakout after the pullback. Use 2 points of risk...WOW. Tough, too tough for me.

I talked about the ES likes to move toward the low of the day between 1 o'clock and 2 o'clock. We also have had the 12:30 move in that direction. Well, we had it today also. I usually tell everyone to be careful till about 2:15. That move back above the M/A looked very enticing, and it might have worked. We got into a descending channel and all we had left was to catch the train after the 3:30 reverse. Take the second candle above the line and try to hold on till you make your target or let the market take you out.

I don't recommend trading after 3:30 but I did see the magic numbers and MACD looking up...to go along with my bias for the day. It also broke above the descending line I drew on my chart.

All of this rhetoric if for you to see these potential set-ups...and when you see them and have magic numbers you try to find a good excuse to pull the trigger. Any of
these trades would have worked or you could have gotten out where you got in...IMO.

Marsh

 

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